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HORIZON SCANNING FOR
signals of change
The Future of Art in a Post-Digital World.
A signal of change is like the seed of a possible future. They can help us to understand and imagine what change might be emerging - which is why when we see a signal, we’ll often ask ourselves “ How might the future be different as a result?”.
In the more traditional research phase, we look for trends, plans and projections; information and data that can be measured - like a quantifiable shift in attitudes or a significant change in policy, but we look for signals of change on the fringes of the domain.
Below is a small example of futures scan hits collected in Airtable and displayed visually here. If you click through to the detailed view, you can also see where the inbuilt Airtable AI function has used reference fields from the scan database to generate a response.
LOOKING FOR
Looking for Signals of Change
A signal of change is like the seed of a possible future. They can help us to understand and imagine what change might be emerging - which is why when we see a signal, we’ll often ask ourselves “ How might the future be different as a result”.
In the more traditional research phase, we look for trends, plans and projections; information and data that can be measured - like a trend, or a quantifiable shift in attitudes or a significant change in policy, but we look for signals of change on the fringes of your domain.
Looking for Signals of Change
If we want to understand what might be happening outside of the mainstream, we have to go to the edges. A signal of change might a super niche startup, a fringe technology or even a highly engaged outlier conversation group or community of experts who are highly engaged in a topic not yet being talked about within the mainstream discourse. It could also be a new isolated behaviour from an institution or company that suggests a shift in the way they’re thinking about your domain; a move that is non-standard . . that suggest they might be feeling their way towards a new direction.
Focus Topics : Understanding Context
We can start to cluster these signals around key Focus Topics which relate to your domain; and try to place the signal within the context of what else we’re seeing. Each signal of change will have varying degrees of likelihood, impact, and urgency - how fast it's approaching, identifying more than one signal in any given area is a good test that it’s something we should be taking notice of. But remember unlike traditional research, when we scan for signals of change - we’re not looking for ‘proof’, we’re looking for evidence of weak disruptive signals right on the edge of your domain.
Drivers : Our Hypotheses of Change
Finally we start to use shape our signals (supported by trends and what we know about the current state of play), into Drivers. Drivers are our change hypotheses - the driving forces we think will play a role in shaping emergent change. These help us to stay focused on the potential future shifts that might occur in your domain, that might otherwise have been overlooked.
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